Model Predictions
| Model | Florida Atlantic Owls | Little Rock Trojans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 26.6% | 73.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.9% | 61.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.6% | 64.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.7% | 64.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.4% | 60.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Little Rock Trojans +3 (65-62). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Florida Atlantic Owls
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefan Moody * | 39 | 9-17 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 9 | +10.2 |
| Pablo Bertone * | 34 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | +14.8 |
| Jordan McCoy * | 32 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | +8.5 |
| Greg Gantt * | 27 | 3-7 | 1-1 | 6-7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 7 | -5.4 |
| Kelvin Penn * | 24 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +8.8 |
| Dragan Sekelja | 23 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | -2.9 |
| Cavon Baker | 12 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | +6.5 |
| Jackson Trapp | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | -2.3 |
| Richard Morrow | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Little Rock Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Neighbour * | 35 | 7-10 | 2-3 | 8-11 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 23 | -11.8 |
| Leroy Isler * | 28 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | -4.6 |
| Taggart Lockhart * | 16 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -6.7 |
| Michael Javes * | 12 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -21.7 |
| Josh Hagins | 24 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -5.9 |
| Kemy Osse | 21 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | +3.9 |
| James White | 17 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +4.4 |
| Ben Dillard | 16 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -4.1 |
| Stetson Billings | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.9 |
| John Gillon | 10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3.1 |
| Gus Leeper | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2.2 |
| Ted Crass | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.8 |
* = starter