Model Predictions
| Model | Idaho State Bengals | Montana Grizzlies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 3.9% | 96.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 11.4% | 88.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 20.6% | 79.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 16.2% | 83.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 4.6% | 95.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 4.4% | 95.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 22.8% | 77.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Montana Grizzlies +19 (70-51). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Idaho State Bengals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Morgan * | 33 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 3 | -15.7 |
| Chris Hansen * | 32 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | -9.7 |
| Andre Hatchett * | 30 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -6.3 |
| Neveij Walters * | 22 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Tomas Sanchez | 34 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -7.9 |
| Nnamdi Ezenwa | 16 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Ayibakuro Preh | 14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4.5 |
| Sherrod Baldwin | 12 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Dejan Kostur | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1.4 |
| Nick Mason | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Jakub Kusmieruk | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.9 |
Montana Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Jamar * | 38 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 15 | +11.1 |
| Mathias Ward * | 37 | 7-14 | 0-2 | 7-7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 14 | +9.0 |
| Will Cherry * | 27 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | +12.4 |
| Jordan Gregory * | 19 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +11.3 |
| Spencer Coleman | 27 | 8-9 | 2-3 | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 13 | +5.8 |
| Michael Weisner | 21 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | +4.9 |
| Eric Hutchison | 13 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | +6.8 |
| Keron Deshields | 10 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -12.8 |
| Kevin Henderson | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3.3 |
| Jacob Wiley | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Morgan Young | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -0.1 |
| Nick Emerson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1 |
* = starter