Model Predictions
| Model | Texas State Bobcats | Idaho Vandals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 12.7% | 87.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.9% | 73.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 25.3% | 74.7% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 16.1% | 83.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 16.0% | 84.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.8% | 74.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Idaho Vandals -5 (73-78). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Davis * | 28 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Corey Stern * | 19 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Vonn Jones * | 18 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - |
| Matt Staff * | 14 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Phil Hawkins | 37 | 6-10 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | - |
| Joel Wright | 34 | 12-20 | 1-4 | 12-15 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 32 | - |
| Reid Koenen | 33 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Deonte' Jones | 8 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Ray Dorsey | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Nick Hinton | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Basil Brown | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Idaho Vandals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Barone * | 37 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 11-12 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 34 | - |
| Connor Hill * | 30 | 2-10 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Mike McChristian * | 29 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15 | - |
| Robert Harris Jr. * | 28 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Stephen Madison * | 27 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Mansa Habeeb | 19 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Joe Kammerer | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Matt Borton | 9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Wendell Faines | 8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Denzel Douglas | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter