Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana State Sycamores | Illinois State Redbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 60.4% | 39.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 37.0% | 63.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 36.3% | 63.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.9% | 64.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.0% | 63.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Illinois State Redbirds +2 (60-58). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Indiana State Sycamores
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Odum * | 31 | 3-12 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 2 | -2.0 |
| Manny Arop * | 31 | 6-13 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 8 | +2.3 |
| Justin Gant * | 29 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | +4.2 |
| RJ Mahurin * | 27 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +4.7 |
| Devonte Brown * | 20 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -8.2 |
| Dawon Cummings | 20 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | +11.6 |
| Lucas Eitel | 18 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | +5.5 |
| Khristian Smith | 15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +2.6 |
| Jake Kitchell | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5.5 |
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Carmichael * | 34 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 8-13 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 18 | +2.0 |
| Tyler Brown * | 33 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 3-6 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 5 | +1.2 |
| Johnny Hill * | 30 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 13 | -0.1 |
| John Wilkins * | 26 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -0.2 |
| Bryant Allen * | 24 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Jon Ekey | 21 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -3 | +0.1 |
| Anthony Cousin | 19 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | -6.0 |
| Kaza Keane | 13 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -2.8 |
* = starter