Model Predictions
| Model | Fresno State Bulldogs | Boise State Broncos | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.6% | 79.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.4% | 73.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 27.8% | 72.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 33.8% | 66.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 18.8% | 81.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 18.8% | 81.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.1% | 73.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Boise State Broncos +7 (74-67). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Fresno State Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Brown * | 36 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 11 | +3.2 |
| Marvelle Harris * | 34 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +0.7 |
| Tyler Johnson * | 34 | 6-13 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 6 | +5.7 |
| Kevin Foster * | 22 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 9 | -7.8 |
| Aaron Anderson * | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | -12.7 |
| Allen Huddleston | 28 | 6-10 | 5-6 | 3-6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +10.7 |
| Robert Upshaw | 19 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | +9.1 |
| Kevin Olekaibe | 11 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | -6.1 |
| Tanner Giddings | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2.7 |
Boise State Broncos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Marks * | 37 | 9-14 | 0-1 | 12-12 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 22 | +1.0 |
| Anthony Drmic * | 35 | 6-14 | 5-8 | 6-6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 15 | +20.2 |
| Igor Hadziomerovic * | 33 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -0.7 |
| Ryan Watkins * | 30 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 19 | +1.9 |
| Jeff Elorriaga * | 18 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +7.1 |
| Kenny Buckner | 25 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | +2.0 |
| Mikey Thompson | 20 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | -19.8 |
| Joe Hanstad | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.6 |
* = starter