Model Predictions
| Model | Omaha Mavericks | Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.8% | 84.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.1% | 59.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 20.6% | 79.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 25.6% | 74.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 10.1% | 89.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 9.8% | 90.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 21.7% | 78.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners +5 (84-79). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Omaha Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Carter * | 38 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +5.9 |
| John Karhoff * | 34 | 7-12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 13 | +3.4 |
| Alex Welhouse * | 28 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Alex Phillips * | 26 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | -9.4 |
| Justin Simmons * | 26 | 6-15 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 5 | -2.0 |
| Caleb Steffensmeier | 14 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Tyler Egli | 11 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +8.1 |
| Marcus Tyus | 11 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | +0.7 |
| Jacques Coleman | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Matt Hagerbaumer | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -0.9 |
Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Maynor * | 35 | 5-11 | 4-9 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 10 | -8.4 |
| Brandon Barnes * | 34 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 3-5 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 16 | -1.6 |
| Adam Young * | 30 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | +1.4 |
| Stephon Carter * | 29 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | -5.6 |
| Tyrone White * | 25 | 6-10 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 10 | -1.8 |
| Britton Williams | 22 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | +2.3 |
| Corey Hall | 14 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -11.6 |
| Erik Kinney | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -0.2 |
| Matt Ratto | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +3.9 |
* = starter