Model Predictions
| Model | Texas State Bobcats | UTSA Roadrunners | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.3% | 78.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.7% | 65.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 38.1% | 61.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.8% | 54.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.0% | 61.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: UTSA Roadrunners -3 (78-81). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Stern * | 38 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 8-12 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 25 | - |
| Wesley Davis * | 36 | 4-9 | 0-4 | 2-6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Matt Staff * | 24 | 0-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Vonn Jones * | 16 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - |
| Phil Hawkins | 36 | 4-8 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 14 | - |
| Reid Koenen | 33 | 7-9 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 13 | - |
| Joel Wright | 26 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 13 | - |
| Deonte' Jones | 11 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Basil Brown | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Ray Dorsey | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
UTSA Roadrunners
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Hale III * | 44 | 10-21 | 3-9 | 8-9 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 21 | - |
| Kannon Burrage * | 43 | 11-26 | 0-3 | 5-7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 7 | - |
| Jordan Sims * | 41 | 3-11 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Hyjii Thomas * | 35 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | - |
| Larry Wilkins * | 20 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Edrico McGregor | 24 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Tyler Wood | 18 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter