Model Predictions
| Model | Saint Mary's Gaels | Portland Pilots | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 82.1% | 17.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 80.8% | 19.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 75.7% | 24.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 77.9% | 22.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 97.2% | 2.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 97.3% | 2.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 72.1% | 27.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Portland Pilots -22 (38-60). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Saint Mary's Gaels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Dellavedova * | 34 | 4-13 | 1-5 | 2-4 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +8.2 |
| Stephen Holt * | 33 | 3-10 | 2-5 | 5-6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +0.1 |
| Brad Waldow * | 30 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +4.0 |
| Jorden Page * | 16 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | +0.9 |
| Mitchell Young * | 9 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -3.1 |
| Beau Levesque | 28 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +5.8 |
| James Walker III | 21 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +2.9 |
| Jordan Giusti | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +4.4 |
| Matt Hodgson | 6 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +7.3 |
| Kyle Rowley | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +3.6 |
| Paul McCoy | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2.6 |
| Eividas Petrulis | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +3.5 |
Portland Pilots
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Rodgers * | 31 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -7.7 |
| Ryan Nicholas * | 30 | 1-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -5.9 |
| Kevin Bailey * | 23 | 3-11 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -3 | -8.4 |
| Thomas van der Mars * | 20 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | -6.4 |
| Korey Thieleke * | 14 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -6.2 |
| Oskar Reinfelds | 21 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -0.8 |
| Riley Barker | 17 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | +2.4 |
| Bryce Pressley | 12 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -4.0 |
| Tanner Riley | 11 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2.8 |
| David Ahern | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | +0.6 |
| John Bailey | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Jake Ehlers | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3.8 |
* = starter