Model Predictions
| Model | UL Monroe Warhawks | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 12.1% | 87.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.6% | 70.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.3% | 76.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 9.0% | 91.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 8.9% | 91.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 22.6% | 77.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves +24 (63-39). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
UL Monroe Warhawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millaun Brown * | 36 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 7 | -13.4 |
| R.J. McCray * | 32 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -1 | -12.4 |
| Amos Olatayo * | 32 | 3-13 | 0-2 | 1-4 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | -1.5 |
| Jayon James * | 31 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 3 | +3.8 |
| Marcelis Hansberry * | 29 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -13.9 |
| Trent Mackey | 20 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | -11.1 |
| Trey Lindsey | 11 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -11.6 |
| Kyle Koszuta | 9 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2.3 |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Peterson * | 37 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 17 | +8.9 |
| Trey Finn * | 32 | 6-11 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 10 | +14.4 |
| Ed Townsel * | 31 | 5-16 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 4 | -1.1 |
| Kelvin Downs * | 20 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -1.2 |
| Raeford Worsham | 23 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 | +12.1 |
| Cameron Golden | 21 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | -3.2 |
| Rakeem Dickerson | 19 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | +13.8 |
| Marcus Hooten | 17 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +6.7 |
* = starter