Model Predictions
| Model | Boise State Broncos | Air Force Falcons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 67.9% | 32.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 61.1% | 38.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 57.0% | 43.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 79.6% | 20.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 79.6% | 20.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 61.2% | 38.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Air Force Falcons +11 (91-80). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Boise State Broncos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Watkins * | 34 | 10-13 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 25 | +3.2 |
| Igor Hadziomerovic * | 33 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | -8.4 |
| Anthony Drmic * | 31 | 6-15 | 5-11 | 2-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 9 | -0.4 |
| Derrick Marks * | 26 | 5-11 | 1-2 | 6-7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 10 | +6.1 |
| Joe Hanstad * | 15 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -8.5 |
| Mikey Thompson | 38 | 1-8 | 1-2 | 5-8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | -12.2 |
| Thomas Bropleh | 18 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8.2 |
| Jake Ness | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6.7 |
Air Force Falcons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Lyons * | 38 | 13-18 | 3-5 | 8-8 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 29 | +14.1 |
| Mike Fitzgerald * | 33 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 6-7 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 20 | +16.8 |
| Taylor Broekhuis * | 29 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 4 | +1.6 |
| Todd Fletcher * | 29 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | -3.1 |
| DeLovell Earls * | 18 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +4.0 |
| Kamryn Williams | 15 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | +8.0 |
| Tre Coggins | 11 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +11.8 |
| Marek Olesinski | 10 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +6.3 |
| Justin Hammonds | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3.4 |
| Kyle Green | 7 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | -8.7 |
| Max Yon | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -7.5 |
* = starter