Model Predictions
| Model | Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | Idaho State Bengals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.4% | 53.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 62.3% | 37.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 59.0% | 41.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 71.8% | 28.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 72.0% | 28.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.5% | 56.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Idaho State Bengals -5 (55-60). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stallon Saldivar * | 38 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | +5.5 |
| Gaellan Bewernick * | 35 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | +11.6 |
| Gabe Rogers * | 35 | 7-17 | 4-10 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 7 | +7.3 |
| DeWayne Russell * | 27 | 7-12 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 7 | +11.4 |
| Max Jacobsen * | 12 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | +0.5 |
| Jordyn Martin | 24 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -0.3 |
| Michael Dunn | 15 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -2.6 |
| Ephraim Ekanem | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | +0.0 |
| Blake Hamilton | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4.5 |
Idaho State Bengals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Hatchett * | 35 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | -8.8 |
| Chris Hansen * | 35 | 2-9 | 1-5 | 4-6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | -8.4 |
| Melvin Morgan * | 32 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 3 | -14.0 |
| Tomas Sanchez | 36 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 5 | -6.9 |
| Neveij Walters | 21 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Nnamdi Ezenwa | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Sherrod Baldwin | 11 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1.9 |
| Ayibakuro Preh | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1.1 |
| Dejan Kostur | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3.4 |
* = starter