Model Predictions
| Model | Missouri State Bears | Bradley Braves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 39.7% | 60.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.2% | 58.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.1% | 68.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 28.1% | 71.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 14.6% | 85.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 14.5% | 85.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.6% | 73.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Bradley Braves +3 (69-66). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Missouri State Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorrian Williams * | 38 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -5.3 |
| Anthony Downing * | 35 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 7-7 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2.5 |
| Marcus Marshall * | 32 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 6-6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 14 | +9.3 |
| Gavin Thurman * | 26 | 4-8 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +10.3 |
| Christian Kirk * | 26 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | +10.1 |
| Keith Pickens | 16 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -7.5 |
| Bruce Marshall | 12 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -10.5 |
| Nathan Scheer | 7 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5.0 |
| Michael Simpson | 4 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | -1.4 |
| Drew Wilson | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3.2 |
Bradley Braves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dyricus Simms-Edwards * | 37 | 6-13 | 1-4 | 4-5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 10 | +3.5 |
| Walt Lemon Jr. * | 35 | 7-15 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 11 | -14.9 |
| Jake Eastman * | 33 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | +10.4 |
| Will Egolf * | 21 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 11 | -0.9 |
| Tyshon Pickett * | 19 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | -16.3 |
| Jalen Crawford | 19 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | -4.1 |
| Shayok Shayok | 18 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | +5.3 |
| Jordan Prosser | 18 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1.2 |
* = starter