Model Predictions
| Model | Kentucky Wildcats | Auburn Tigers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 79.4% | 20.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 79.1% | 20.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 78.1% | 21.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 59.7% | 40.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 96.9% | 3.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 97.0% | 3.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 73.5% | 26.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Auburn Tigers -22 (53-75). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Kentucky Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Goodwin * | 35 | 5-7 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 14 | +9.8 |
| Ryan Harrow * | 34 | 6-12 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 9 | +18.9 |
| Julius Mays * | 34 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | +6.2 |
| Alex Poythress * | 29 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +12.1 |
| Nerlens Noel * | 25 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 16 | +8.8 |
| Kyle Wiltjer | 29 | 6-13 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 12 | +10.7 |
| Jarrod Polson | 10 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | +0.8 |
| Jon Hood | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2.2 |
Auburn Tigers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Payne * | 35 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | -11.0 |
| Frankie Sullivan * | 34 | 5-16 | 0-6 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1 | -6.5 |
| Josh Wallace * | 30 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -23.4 |
| Rob Chubb * | 25 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 5 | -8.5 |
| Noel Johnson * | 13 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -5 | -6.0 |
| Asauhn Dixon-Tatum | 15 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 11 | -2.2 |
| Brian Greene Jr. | 15 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +4.4 |
| Shaquille Johnson | 14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1.6 |
| Chris Denson | 13 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Jordan Price | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -8.3 |
* = starter