Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois State Redbirds | Dayton Flyers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.1% | 84.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 19.1% | 80.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 10.1% | 89.9% | +12.0 | ✗ (13.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 33.0% | 67.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 16.4% | 83.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 16.5% | 83.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Dayton Flyers -1 (73-74). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Carmichael * | 33 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 35 | - |
| Tyler Brown * | 32 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 18 | - |
| Bryant Allen * | 30 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 11 | - |
| Johnny Hill * | 30 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 | - |
| Jon Ekey * | 26 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 19 | - |
| Kaza Keane | 19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | - |
| John Wilkins | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Nick Zeisloft | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Jordan Threloff | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Dillard * | 36 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 15 | - |
| Dyshawn Pierre * | 30 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 21 | - |
| Josh Benson * | 24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 18 | - |
| Devin Oliver * | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Vee Sanford * | 19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Khari Price | 26 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | - |
| Alex Gavrilovic | 18 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Matt Derenbecker | 17 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Jalen Robinson | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - |
| Devon Scott | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter