Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana State Sycamores | Morehead State Eagles | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.6% | 43.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 47.2% | 52.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 58.2% | 41.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 72.5% | 27.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 72.4% | 27.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.9% | 56.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Morehead State Eagles +8 (71-63). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Indiana State Sycamores
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Odum * | 35 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 9-12 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 12 | -13.9 |
| Manny Arop * | 34 | 6-13 | 3-8 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 9 | -18.8 |
| Khristian Smith * | 31 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 8-11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 11 | -9.4 |
| Lucas Eitel * | 23 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -5.2 |
| Jake Kitchell * | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4.7 |
| RJ Mahurin | 24 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -8.7 |
| Dawon Cummings | 22 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 3-5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -12.1 |
| Justin Gant | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Devonte Brown | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4.4 |
| Brandon Burnett | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -0.1 |
Morehead State Eagles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angelo Warner * | 29 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 5-6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 9 | +15.2 |
| Devon Atkinson * | 26 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | +20.4 |
| Jourdan Stickler * | 22 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +13.4 |
| Bruce Reed * | 19 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +14.0 |
| Chad Posthumus * | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -0.7 |
| Milton Chavis | 21 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 5-10 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 15 | +14.6 |
| Maurice Lewis-Briggs | 19 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | +5.7 |
| Jason Holmes | 19 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 11 | +12.8 |
| Cordell James | 10 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -8.6 |
| Drew Kelly | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2.6 |
| Bakari Turner | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Jarrett Stokes | 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2.0 |
| Jordan Percell | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -3.5 |
* = starter