Model Predictions
| Model | Western Michigan Broncos | Illinois State Redbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.6% | 80.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 17.7% | 82.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 7.1% | 92.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 6.8% | 93.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 18.3% | 81.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Illinois State Redbirds +22 (85-63). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Western Michigan Broncos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Hutcheson * | 37 | 4-18 | 2-6 | 5-10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 5 | -10.6 |
| Brandon Pokley * | 33 | 4-10 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | -5.8 |
| Darius Paul * | 32 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 6-8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 13 | -15.1 |
| Shayne Whittington * | 29 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -13.0 |
| Austin Richie * | 23 | 1-7 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1.1 |
| Jared Klein | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -14.5 |
| Connar Tava | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3.0 |
| Dan Loney | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8.3 |
| Taylor Perry | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1.8 |
| Charles Harris | 3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +0.1 |
| Hayden Hoerdemann | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1.8 |
| Anthony Avery Jr. | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.9 |
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Brown * | 31 | 4-10 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 13 | +16.4 |
| Johnny Hill * | 30 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 21 | +13.1 |
| Jackie Carmichael * | 30 | 9-17 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 24 | 21 | +7.4 |
| Bryant Allen * | 19 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -12.5 |
| Jon Ekey * | 18 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1.7 |
| John Wilkins | 18 | 7-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 10 | +17.2 |
| Nick Zeisloft | 16 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | +12.5 |
| Jordan Threloff | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | +0.8 |
| Kaza Keane | 14 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | +2.6 |
| Geoffrey Allen | 8 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | +3.7 |
| Anthony Cousin | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.9 |
| Zeke Upshaw | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1.9 |
* = starter