Model Predictions
| Model | St. Bonaventure Bonnies | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 72.3% | 27.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 70.0% | 30.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 59.9% | 40.1% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 58.0% | 42.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 84.8% | 15.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 84.6% | 15.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves +3 (73-70). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
St. Bonaventure Bonnies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demitrius Conger * | 38 | 2-11 | 0-6 | 4-4 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 13 | +0.7 |
| Chris Johnson * | 32 | 7-15 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 4 | -5.8 |
| Charlon Kloof * | 29 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +12.0 |
| Marquise Simmons * | 27 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | +19.7 |
| Matthew Wright * | 23 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 7-8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +2.8 |
| Jordan Gathers | 20 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | +3.0 |
| Eric Mosley | 10 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -16.1 |
| Michael Davenport | 8 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4.6 |
| Youssou Ndoye | 7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | -15.3 |
| Dion Wright | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6.7 |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Peterson * | 38 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 18 | -4.6 |
| Trey Finn * | 33 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +7.7 |
| Ed Townsel * | 33 | 3-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | -1.2 |
| Rakeem Dickerson * | 32 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 3 | -3.2 |
| Raeford Worsham * | 31 | 6-11 | 1-2 | 5-8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 13 | +10.2 |
| Marcus Hooten | 11 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -2 | -5.5 |
| Kelvin Downs | 10 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +5.7 |
| Cameron Golden | 9 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +7.3 |
| Seth Kisler | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2.4 |
* = starter