Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions | Air Force Falcons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 8.9% | 91.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 22.1% | 77.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.4% | 84.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 14.8% | 85.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 2.3% | 97.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 2.2% | 97.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 15.5% | 84.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Air Force Falcons +16 (65-49). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Anderson * | 38 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 5 | -5.6 |
| Davon Haynes * | 38 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | +1.8 |
| Lazabian Jackson * | 34 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Tevin Hammond * | 25 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | -0.7 |
| Jaylon Floyd * | 12 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | +8.2 |
| Daniel Broughton | 19 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -5.4 |
| Kyle Jones | 14 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -4 | -8.8 |
| Warren Boyd | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -14.5 |
| Trent Whiting | 8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3.0 |
Air Force Falcons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Lyons * | 33 | 7-15 | 3-9 | 9-12 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 19 | +11.5 |
| Mike Fitzgerald * | 32 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 11 | +2.5 |
| Taylor Broekhuis * | 29 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | +0.7 |
| Kyle Green * | 29 | 2-8 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -2 | -3.7 |
| Todd Fletcher * | 28 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | -1.4 |
| Tre Coggins | 12 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +5.3 |
| Marek Olesinski | 10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +2.1 |
| DeLovell Earls | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Cameron Michael | 6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -7.2 |
| Max Yon | 6 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | +2.7 |
| Kamryn Williams | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | +3.6 |
| Zach Moer | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter