Model Predictions
| Model | Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 7.5% | 92.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 25.1% | 74.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 13.9% | 86.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 7.9% | 92.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 2.0% | 98.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.9% | 98.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 12.0% | 88.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers +28 (67-39). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davon Usher * | 33 | 5-18 | 2-9 | 2-3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1 | -3.9 |
| Blake Ralling * | 33 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | -15.5 |
| Darryl Marshall * | 22 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -6 | -15.2 |
| Montreal Holley * | 15 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -2.0 |
| Julius Francis * | 11 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -14.8 |
| Matt Smith | 31 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -4.3 |
| Darius Tomlin | 25 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | +6.4 |
| Cortland Henry | 20 | 0-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -5.1 |
| Cameron Dobbs | 10 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | -0.2 |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Harris * | 27 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | +7.5 |
| Darion Atkins * | 23 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 12 | +4.0 |
| Teven Jones * | 21 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +17.3 |
| Paul Jesperson * | 20 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +12.0 |
| Akil Mitchell * | 16 | 9-14 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 15 | +9.7 |
| Justin Anderson | 27 | 6-11 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 19 | +1.3 |
| Evan Nolte | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | +0.4 |
| Taylor Barnette | 18 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -5.3 |
| Doug Browman | 13 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Mike Tobey | 12 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | +1.4 |
| Thomas Rogers | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.6 |
| Caid Kirven | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -0.2 |
* = starter