Model Predictions
| Model | Samford Bulldogs | Bowling Green Falcons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.9% | 85.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.4% | 70.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 30.8% | 69.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 28.5% | 71.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 18.9% | 81.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 18.8% | 81.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 29.7% | 70.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Bowling Green Falcons +15 (57-42). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Samford Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Williams * | 38 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | -14.5 |
| Raijon Kelly * | 37 | 6-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 11 | -6.2 |
| Connor Miller * | 34 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -8.2 |
| Jaylen Beckham * | 19 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | - |
| Clide Geffrard, Jr. | 36 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -10.6 |
| Russell Wilson | 22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -18.4 |
| Brandon Hayman | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +3.3 |
| Will Cook | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -6.9 |
Bowling Green Falcons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordon Crawford * | 38 | 4-17 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 | +13.3 |
| Luke Kraus * | 28 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | -3.7 |
| Chauncey Orr * | 25 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | -6.7 |
| Cameron Black * | 21 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4.2 |
| A'uston Calhoun | 28 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 11 | +12.0 |
| Richaun Holmes | 19 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 11 | +15.1 |
| James Erger | 15 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | +15.3 |
| Anthony Henderson | 14 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | +7.9 |
| Craig Sealey | 10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | -7.0 |
| Spencer Parker | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.8 |
* = starter