Model Predictions
| Model | Valparaiso Beacons | New Mexico Lobos | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.1% | 85.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 25.9% | 74.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 33.1% | 66.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 49.6% | 50.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 24.9% | 75.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 25.0% | 75.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.3% | 63.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: New Mexico Lobos +13 (65-52). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Valparaiso Beacons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Broekhoff * | 35 | 8-14 | 5-10 | 3-3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 20 | -0.4 |
| Erik Buggs * | 35 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 5 | +3.6 |
| Will Bogan * | 26 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +1.1 |
| Kevin Van Wijk * | 22 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | +3.1 |
| Ben Boggs * | 17 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -4 | -5.7 |
| Matt Kenney | 21 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -2 | -11.1 |
| Jordan Coleman | 21 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -2.3 |
| Bobby Capobianco | 14 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2.5 |
| Vashil Fernandez | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | -2.9 |
| Alex Rossi | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
New Mexico Lobos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Williams * | 36 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 5-6 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 11 | +6.3 |
| Tony Snell * | 29 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 2 | +3.3 |
| Hugh Greenwood * | 28 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 | +11.3 |
| Chad Adams * | 26 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | +8.4 |
| Alex Kirk * | 24 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 4-7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 | +5.2 |
| Demetrius Walker | 21 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | -0.4 |
| Cameron Bairstow | 17 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | +5.9 |
| Jamal Fenton | 10 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3.6 |
| Nick Banyard | 8 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -7.1 |
| Pancake Thomas | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2.0 |
* = starter