Model Predictions
| Model | Navy Midshipmen | Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.3% | 75.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 40.0% | 60.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 62.0% | 38.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.3% | 48.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.6% | 48.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.4% | 59.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers +7 (72-65). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Navy Midshipmen
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worth Smith * | 37 | 4-9 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 15 | - |
| Tilman Dunbar * | 36 | 7-10 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 8 | - |
| James Loupos * | 32 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Thurgood Wynn * | 22 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Brandon Venturini * | 16 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Kendall Knorr | 30 | 5-8 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Brennan Wyatt | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Will Kelly | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Jared Smoot | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
| Kevin Alter | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Norfleet * | 30 | 4-11 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Rashad Whack * | 27 | 6-13 | 6-12 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 11 | - |
| Josh Castellanos * | 21 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | - |
| Kristijan Krajina * | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Xavier Owens * | 13 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Sam Prescott | 26 | 4-12 | 4-10 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 7 | - |
| Shivaughn Wiggins | 26 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Raven Barber | 18 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Gregory Graves | 14 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Taylor Danaher | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter