Model Predictions
| Model | UC Riverside Highlanders | Pepperdine Waves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.7% | 82.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.7% | 68.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.3% | 67.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 28.1% | 71.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 20.0% | 80.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 20.2% | 79.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.8% | 72.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Pepperdine Waves +22 (62-40). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
UC Riverside Highlanders
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith * | 26 | 2-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | -15.7 |
| Josh Fox * | 25 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 5 | -5.5 |
| Dayton Boddie * | 25 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3.5 |
| Chris Patton * | 22 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | -10.5 |
| Davin Guinn * | 17 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7.4 |
| Taylor Johns | 19 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | -9.2 |
| Lucas Devenny | 17 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -7.8 |
| Steven Jones | 17 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -9.0 |
| Tre Owens | 15 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -7.6 |
| Austin Quick | 12 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.4 |
| Tajai Johnson | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | +0.1 |
| TJ Burke | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Pepperdine Waves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Willis * | 29 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | +8.5 |
| Lorne Jackson * | 29 | 5-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 3 | +14.6 |
| Stacy Davis * | 26 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | +8.5 |
| Jett Raines * | 24 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | +11.2 |
| Nikolas Skouen * | 20 | 4-9 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +11.0 |
| Jordan Baker | 22 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +0.5 |
| Jan Maehlen | 15 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 9 | +14.8 |
| Moriba De Freitas | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -6.7 |
| Atif Russell | 10 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +3.5 |
| Austin Mills | 8 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | +1.7 |
| Allen Stevens | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Manny Ochenje | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter