Model Predictions
| Model | North Dakota State Bison | Morehead State Eagles | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 58.5% | 41.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 60.4% | 39.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 82.3% | 17.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 82.8% | 17.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 61.9% | 38.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Morehead State Eagles -12 (57-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
North Dakota State Bison
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawrence Alexander * | 34 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 6 | +6.6 |
| Taylor Braun * | 29 | 6-17 | 0-2 | 11-12 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 13 | +10.8 |
| Marshall Bjorklund * | 29 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 13 | +3.3 |
| Kory Brown * | 28 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | +5.9 |
| TrayVonn Wright * | 25 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | +3.9 |
| Chris Kading | 22 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 11 | +3.4 |
| Nate Zastrow | 17 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2.0 |
| Mike Felt | 13 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | -0.3 |
| Jordan Aaberg | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.7 |
| Fred Newell | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3.3 |
| Brett VandenBergh | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.2 |
Morehead State Eagles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Atkinson * | 33 | 5-9 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 9 | -12.5 |
| Angelo Warner * | 28 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 13 | +6.1 |
| Bruce Reed * | 26 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | +2.5 |
| Milton Chavis * | 18 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | -5.8 |
| Kahlil Owens * | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -15.2 |
| Chad Posthumus | 18 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 7-11 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 14 | +15.1 |
| Drew Kelly | 13 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5.9 |
| Jourdan Stickler | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | +8.3 |
| Bakari Turner | 11 | 0-6 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -5 | -11.4 |
| Jarrett Stokes | 9 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -1.4 |
| Cordell James | 9 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +3.5 |
| Jason Holmes | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -0.4 |
| Jordan Percell | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -3.3 |
| Maurice Lewis-Briggs | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4.0 |
* = starter