Model Predictions
| Model | UTSA Roadrunners | Mississippi State Bulldogs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.2% | 74.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.7% | 62.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 47.2% | 52.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 30.1% | 69.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.3% | 58.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Mississippi State Bulldogs +11 (53-42). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
UTSA Roadrunners
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kannon Burrage * | 37 | 4-18 | 3-8 | 4-6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 | -3 | -5.8 |
| Jeromie Hill * | 37 | 3-12 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 4 | -8.1 |
| Jordan Sims * | 31 | 0-7 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2.0 |
| A.J. Price * | 31 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -3 | -9.6 |
| Larry Wilkins * | 27 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -6.1 |
| Hyjii Thomas | 20 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | -6.7 |
| Edrico McGregor | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +1.4 |
| Tyler Wood | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Tank Mayberry | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Sword * | 30 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 3-6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 5 | +3.9 |
| Trivante Bloodman * | 30 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +7.6 |
| Roquez Johnson * | 25 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | -2.4 |
| Gavin Ware * | 14 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2.7 |
| Fred Thomas | 32 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 6 | -1.3 |
| Colin Borchert | 26 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | +11.9 |
| Wendell Lewis | 26 | 8-9 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 16 | +2.1 |
| Tyson Cunningham | 17 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +0.9 |
* = starter