Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Dream | Connecticut Sun | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Connecticut Sun +20 (92-72). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Atlanta Dream
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lindsey Harding * | 34 | 6-10 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 11 | - |
| Sancho Lyttle * | 30 | 5-15 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Erika de Souza * | 28 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Angel McCoughtry * | 20 | 5-14 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Armintie Herrington * | 17 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Tiffany Hayes | 31 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 4-6 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Aneika Morello | 11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Cathrine Kraayeveld | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Ketia Swanier | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Laurie Koehn | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Connecticut Sun
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kara Lawson * | 33 | 8-13 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 13 | - |
| Tina Charles * | 24 | 6-15 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 12 | - |
| Kalana Greene * | 19 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Allison Hightower * | 15 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Asjha Jones * | 11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Mistie Bass | 26 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 13 | - |
| Renee Montgomery | 26 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Tan White | 24 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Kelsey Griffin | 12 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Jessica Moore | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter