Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Los Angeles Sparks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.6% | 83.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 17.5% | 82.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 21.2% | 78.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 22.4% | 77.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 10.8% | 89.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 10.8% | 89.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 17.8% | 82.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Los Angeles Sparks +25 (101-76). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Hornbuckle * | 35 | 4-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 4 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner * | 31 | 6-15 | 1-4 | 10-11 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 17 | - |
| Krystal Thomas * | 29 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 15 | - |
| Charde Houston * | 25 | 6-14 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 4 | - |
| Candice Dupree * | 14 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Briana Butler | 25 | 2-7 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Nakia Sanford | 19 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Lynetta Kizer | 12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | - |
| Dymond Simon | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
Los Angeles Sparks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristi Toliver * | 33 | 5-12 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 8 | - |
| Candace Parker * | 31 | 11-18 | 2-2 | 2-6 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 29 | - |
| DeLisha Milton-Jones * | 28 | 5-11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Nneka Ogwumike * | 22 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Alana Beard * | 20 | 9-13 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 17 | - |
| Jenna O'Hea | 19 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - |
| Ebony Hoffman | 14 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Marissa Coleman | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Jantel Lavender | 10 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | - |
| April Sykes | 3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - |
| Nicky Anosike | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter