Model Predictions
| Model | Connecticut Sun | Los Angeles Sparks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.5% | 53.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.5% | 45.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 41.3% | 58.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 49.5% | 50.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Los Angeles Sparks +11 (93-82). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Connecticut Sun
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tina Charles * | 36 | 9-17 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 17 | - |
| Kara Lawson * | 33 | 1-8 | 1-5 | 4-5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Mistie Bass * | 24 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Allison Hightower * | 17 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Kalana Greene * | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Renee Montgomery | 22 | 3-8 | 3-6 | 6-7 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Danielle McCray | 21 | 3-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Tan White | 17 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 3 | - |
| Kelsey Griffin | 9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - |
Los Angeles Sparks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nneka Ogwumike * | 33 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 17 | - |
| Kristi Toliver * | 33 | 7-11 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 14 | - |
| DeLisha Milton-Jones * | 31 | 3-10 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | - |
| Candace Parker * | 31 | 8-12 | 0-1 | 7-8 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 28 | - |
| Alana Beard * | 29 | 5-12 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Marissa Coleman | 13 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Jenna O'Hea | 12 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Jantel Lavender | 11 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Ebony Hoffman | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter