Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Connecticut Sun | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.1% | 85.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 16.6% | 83.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 23.0% | 77.0% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 24.5% | 75.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 14.4% | 85.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 14.3% | 85.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Connecticut Sun -9 (82-91). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeWanna Bonner * | 33 | 12-23 | 6-11 | 5-5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 18 | - |
| Alexis Hornbuckle * | 31 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Krystal Thomas * | 26 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 16 | - |
| Nakia Sanford * | 22 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 17 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 10 | - |
| Briana Butler | 21 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Avery Warley-Talbert | 19 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Charde Houston | 16 | 3-10 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Lynetta Kizer | 10 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | - |
Connecticut Sun
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tina Charles * | 35 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 7-7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 15 | - |
| Kara Lawson * | 30 | 2-10 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Allison Hightower * | 18 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Kelsey Griffin * | 16 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Kalana Greene * | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Renee Montgomery | 29 | 8-13 | 3-6 | 6-7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 16 | - |
| Danielle McCray | 27 | 4-10 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 6 | - |
| Mistie Bass | 22 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Tan White | 5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jessica Moore | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter