Model Predictions
| Model | Connecticut Sun | Atlanta Dream | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.5% | 61.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 64.3% | 35.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 52.5% | 47.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Atlanta Dream +7 (87-80). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Connecticut Sun
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kara Lawson * | 37 | 6-11 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 11 | - |
| Tina Charles * | 37 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Allison Hightower * | 25 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | - |
| Kelsey Griffin * | 23 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Kalana Greene * | 18 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 11 | - |
| Renee Montgomery | 20 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 5 | - |
| Danielle McCray | 14 | 5-6 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Tan White | 13 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -3 | - |
| Jessica Moore | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Atlanta Dream
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erika de Souza * | 36 | 6-15 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 18 | - |
| Sancho Lyttle * | 31 | 7-12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 21 | - |
| Lindsey Harding * | 30 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Tiffany Hayes * | 29 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Cathrine Kraayeveld * | 19 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Angel McCoughtry | 19 | 8-14 | 2-3 | 6-6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 16 | - |
| Armintie Herrington | 18 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Ketia Swanier | 9 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Aneika Morello | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter