Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Fever | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.7% | 75.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.6% | 68.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 34.6% | 65.4% | +3.5 | ✗ (16.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.7% | 49.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury -13 (72-85). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Indiana Fever
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie Douglas * | 29 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 4-6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 13 | - |
| Tamika Catchings * | 28 | 5-10 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 15 | - |
| Briann January * | 27 | 8-15 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 11 | - |
| Shavonte Zellous * | 21 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Tammy Sutton-Brown * | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Jessica Davenport | 24 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | - |
| Erin Phillips | 23 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Erlana Larkins | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Karima Christmas-Kelly | 10 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Jeanette Pohlen-Mavunga | 7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Sasha Goodlett | 7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Hornbuckle * | 33 | 5-14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 4 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner * | 30 | 5-16 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Krystal Thomas * | 29 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Samantha Prahalis * | 26 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 24 | 6-14 | 2-7 | 5-5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 11 | - |
| Briana Butler | 19 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Avery Warley-Talbert | 17 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Nakia Sanford | 16 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Dymond Simon | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter