Model Predictions
| Model | Los Angeles Sparks | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 77.9% | 22.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 69.6% | 30.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 77.2% | 22.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 77.2% | 22.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.8% | 39.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury -19 (71-90). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Los Angeles Sparks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristi Toliver * | 33 | 7-13 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 15 | - |
| Candace Parker * | 30 | 8-19 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 22 | - |
| DeLisha Milton-Jones * | 29 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | - |
| Nneka Ogwumike * | 29 | 2-12 | 0-0 | 7-7 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 | - |
| Alana Beard * | 28 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Jantel Lavender | 17 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Marissa Coleman | 15 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Andrea Riley | 7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| April Sykes | 7 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeWanna Bonner * | 35 | 4-17 | 0-5 | 6-8 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 5 | - |
| Samantha Prahalis * | 31 | 3-14 | 2-6 | 6-8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 5 | - |
| Alexis Hornbuckle * | 31 | 2-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Krystal Thomas * | 25 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Charde Houston * | 8 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Alexis Gray-Lawson | 22 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Avery Warley-Talbert | 21 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | - |
| Lynetta Kizer | 18 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Nakia Sanford | 4 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
* = starter