Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Las Vegas Aces | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.5% | 78.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 27.2% | 72.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 20.2% | 79.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 27.0% | 73.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 15.8% | 84.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 15.8% | 84.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 16.0% | 84.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Las Vegas Aces +1 (82-81). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeWanna Bonner * | 34 | 11-23 | 3-7 | 13-13 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 38 | 21 | - |
| Charde Houston * | 33 | 7-17 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 7 | - |
| Samantha Prahalis * | 32 | 3-12 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Krystal Thomas * | 29 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | - |
| Alexis Hornbuckle * | 26 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Avery Warley-Talbert | 22 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Nakia Sanford | 13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Alexis Gray-Lawson | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Las Vegas Aces
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Becky Hammon * | 33 | 6-20 | 2-11 | 8-8 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 6 | - |
| Sophia Young-Malcolm * | 32 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 19 | - |
| Danielle Robinson * | 25 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 | - |
| Shameka Christon * | 20 | 0-7 | 0-6 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Jayne Appel Marinelli * | 14 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Danielle Adams | 26 | 9-18 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 13 | - |
| Jia Perkins | 19 | 2-11 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -5 | - |
| Shenise Johnson | 18 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Tully Bevilaqua | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Ziomara Morrison | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter