Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Washington Mystics | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 57.8% | 42.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 41.7% | 58.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 49.4% | 50.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 49.5% | 50.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 34.7% | 65.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Washington Mystics +13 (90-77). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeWanna Bonner * | 36 | 7-22 | 0-5 | 6-6 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 10 | - |
| Krystal Thomas * | 34 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Samantha Prahalis * | 32 | 8-14 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 13 | - |
| Charde Houston * | 29 | 9-19 | 4-8 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 13 | - |
| Alexis Hornbuckle * | 22 | 0-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Avery Warley-Talbert | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - |
| Alexis Gray-Lawson | 11 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Nakia Sanford | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Andrea Riley | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
Washington Mystics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Snow * | 28 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 17 | - |
| Crystal Langhorne * | 25 | 9-12 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 18 | - |
| Shannon Bobbitt * | 19 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Monique Currie * | 17 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Matee Ajavon * | 16 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | - |
| Noelle Quinn | 23 | 7-17 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 5 | - |
| Natalie Novosel | 22 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 5-7 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 17 | - |
| Jasmine Thomas | 20 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Lindsay Wisdom-Hylton | 14 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Ashley Robinson | 11 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | - |
* = starter