Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.8% | 82.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.9% | 71.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 26.5% | 73.5% | +5.6 | ✗ (23.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.5% | 48.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 71.3% | 28.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 78.5% | 21.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 78.7% | 21.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils -18 (70-88). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Marshall * | 38 | 7-15 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 16 | - |
| Harrison Barnes * | 32 | 6-14 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 3 | - |
| John Henson * | 32 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 15 | - |
| Reggie Bullock * | 29 | 5-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Tyler Zeller * | 26 | 9-11 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 16 | - |
| J. McAdoo | 21 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| P.J. Hairston | 15 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Justin Watts | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Stilman White | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gbinije | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Austin Rivers * | 38 | 5-12 | 1-6 | 4-7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 4 | - |
| Seth Curry * | 35 | 3-13 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 3 | - |
| Ryan Kelly * | 28 | 1-8 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | - |
| M. Plumlee * | 26 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 19 | - |
| Tyler Thornton * | 24 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| M. Plumlee | 24 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 12 | - |
| Quinn Cook | 13 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Andre Dawkins | 11 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Josh Hairston | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter