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2012-03-03

Model Predictions

Model North Carolina Tar Heels Duke Blue Devils Spread Result
Elo 17.8% 82.2% -
Bradley-Terry 28.9% 71.1% -
Margin 26.5% 73.5% +5.6 (23.6 off)
Pythagorean 51.5% 48.5% -
Efficiency 71.3% 28.7% -
Adjusted Efficiency 78.5% 21.5% -
Log Adjusted 78.7% 21.3% -

Actual: Duke Blue Devils -18 (70-88). Predictions use season-end ratings.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
K. Marshall * 38 7-15 1-3 5-6 4 10 1 0 4 20 16 -
H. Barnes * 32 6-14 1-3 3-4 4 0 0 0 3 16 3 -
J. Henson * 32 5-9 0-0 3-4 10 0 0 1 0 13 15 -
R. Bullock Jr. * 29 5-9 2-6 0-0 6 1 1 0 1 12 10 -
T. Zeller * 26 9-11 0-0 1-1 10 0 0 0 2 19 16 -
J. McAdoo 21 3-5 0-0 0-0 4 0 0 0 1 6 4 -
P.J. Hairston 15 1-3 0-1 0-0 4 1 0 0 1 2 3 -
J. Watts 4 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
S. White 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 -

Duke Blue Devils

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
M. Gbinije 0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
A. Rivers * 38 5-12 1-6 4-7 1 3 1 0 4 15 4 -
S. Curry * 35 3-13 3-5 3-4 1 3 0 0 0 12 3 -
R. Kelly * 28 1-8 0-5 0-0 1 1 0 0 0 2 -4 -
M. Plumlee * 26 7-9 0-0 2-3 11 0 1 0 0 16 19 -
T. Thornton * 24 2-4 2-3 0-0 2 1 1 0 0 6 6 -
M. Plumlee 24 7-13 0-0 3-5 4 2 2 2 2 17 12 -
Q. Cook 13 1-3 0-1 0-2 1 2 2 0 0 2 4 -
A. Dawkins 11 0-1 0-1 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
J. Hairston 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

* = starter