Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Chicago Sky | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 27.5% | 72.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 25.7% | 74.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 24.9% | 75.1% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 31.1% | 68.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 22.6% | 77.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 22.6% | 77.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 18.0% | 82.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Chicago Sky -3 (81-84). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeWanna Bonner * | 38 | 9-19 | 0-3 | 9-12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 19 | - |
| Krystal Thomas * | 35 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 16 | - |
| Samantha Prahalis * | 33 | 5-15 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 3 | - |
| Charde Houston * | 29 | 6-11 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 10 | - |
| Alexis Hornbuckle * | 28 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 16 | - |
| Avery Warley-Talbert | 22 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Andrea Riley | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Alexis Gray-Lawson | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
Chicago Sky
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swin Cash * | 36 | 6-14 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | - |
| Sylvia Fowles * | 36 | 3-12 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | - |
| Tamera Young * | 33 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 2 | - |
| Courtney Vandersloot * | 24 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Sonja Petrovic * | 17 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Shay Murphy | 21 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 14 | - |
| Ticha Penicheiro | 15 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | - |
| Ruth Riley | 8 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Le'coe Willingham | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter