Model Predictions
| Model | Los Angeles Sparks | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.2% | 57.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 73.1% | 26.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 67.7% | 32.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.4% | 30.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 69.3% | 30.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 62.6% | 37.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury -9 (84-93). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Los Angeles Sparks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jantel Lavender * | 36 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Kristi Toliver * | 34 | 10-16 | 1-5 | 8-8 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 20 | - |
| Alana Beard * | 31 | 7-13 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 10 | - |
| DeLisha Milton-Jones * | 30 | 4-14 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Nneka Ogwumike * | 23 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Marissa Coleman | 20 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 11 | - |
| April Sykes | 15 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Coco Miller | 7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeWanna Bonner * | 38 | 7-21 | 1-9 | 9-11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 15 | - |
| Samantha Prahalis * | 32 | 8-17 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 16 | - |
| Krystal Thomas * | 31 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 15 | - |
| Charde Houston * | 31 | 7-15 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 6 | - |
| Alexis Hornbuckle * | 23 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -1 | - |
| Avery Warley-Talbert | 22 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Alexis Gray-Lawson | 12 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Andrea Riley | 7 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter