Model Predictions
| Model | Washington Mystics | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 23.8% | 76.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.3% | 53.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 46.4% | 53.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 58.2% | 41.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.9% | 33.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 66.9% | 33.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 57.3% | 42.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +3 (80-77). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Washington Mystics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Langhorne * | 34 | 6-15 | 1-1 | 0-4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 6 | - |
| Michelle Snow * | 31 | 9-12 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 18 | - |
| Jasmine Thomas * | 26 | 2-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Matee Ajavon * | 24 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Noelle Quinn * | 17 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Monique Currie | 28 | 8-16 | 3-5 | 1-4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 10 | - |
| Natasha Lacy | 14 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Lindsay Wisdom-Hylton | 13 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Shannon Bobbitt | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Natalie Novosel | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeWanna Bonner * | 40 | 7-18 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 12 | - |
| Krystal Thomas * | 32 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 13 | - |
| Samantha Prahalis * | 29 | 6-15 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | - |
| Charde Houston * | 27 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Alexis Hornbuckle * | 20 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 3-6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Alexis Gray-Lawson | 21 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Avery Warley-Talbert | 18 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 13 | - |
| Andrea Riley | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
* = starter