Model Predictions
| Model | Minnesota Lynx | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 69.2% | 30.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 86.4% | 13.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 77.8% | 22.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 76.5% | 23.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 89.4% | 10.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 89.4% | 10.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 82.3% | 17.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury -18 (60-78). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Minnesota Lynx
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taj McWilliams-Franklin * | 29 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Seimone Augustus * | 27 | 6-13 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Lindsay Whalen * | 25 | 11-14 | 1-1 | 6-7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 20 | - |
| Maya Moore * | 22 | 3-10 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Rebekkah Brunson * | 18 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Monica Wright | 21 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 3-3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Amber Harris | 16 | 0-6 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Candice Wiggins | 16 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Devereaux Peters | 14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Erin Thorn | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Jessica Adair | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeWanna Bonner * | 35 | 5-16 | 0-3 | 8-10 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 7 | - |
| Candice Dupree * | 35 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Samantha Prahalis * | 29 | 1-8 | 0-3 | 5-5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Charde Houston * | 20 | 2-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Nakia Sanford * | 10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Krystal Thomas | 18 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | - |
| Alexis Hornbuckle | 16 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Alexis Gray-Lawson | 11 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | - |
| Avery Warley-Talbert | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Andrea Riley | 10 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | - |
* = starter