Model Predictions
| Model | Massachusetts Minutemen | Dayton Flyers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.0% | 54.0% | +0.2 | ✓ (32.8 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 35.5% | 64.5% | +3.3 | ✓ (29.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.7% | 52.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.9% | 64.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dayton Flyers +33 (76-43). Ratings: 2011-12 season-end ratings.
Massachusetts Minutemen
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Morgan * | 29 | 1-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Chaz Williams * | 27 | 2-12 | 2-5 | 5-6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | - |
| Terrell Vinson * | 27 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Sean Carter * | 22 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | - |
| Raphiael Putney * | 17 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Maxie Esho | 27 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Freddie Riley | 25 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | - |
| Javorn Farrell | 12 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Matt Hill | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Andrew McCarthy | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson * | 36 | 6-11 | 4-9 | 4-4 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 20 | - |
| Paul Williams * | 29 | 1-8 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Kevin Dillard * | 29 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 8-10 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 17 | - |
| Devin Oliver * | 25 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Matt Kavanaugh * | 22 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | - |
| Josh Parker | 22 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 2 | - |
| Alex Gavrilovic | 18 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Luke Fabrizius | 10 | 4-6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Ralph Hill | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Brian Vonderhaar | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Mitch Asmus | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Dennis Williams | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter