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North Carolina Tar Heels 54
@
Virginia Cavaliers 51
2012-02-25

Model Predictions

Model North Carolina Tar Heels Virginia Cavaliers Spread Result
Elo 28.7% 71.3% - ✗
Bradley-Terry 38.9% 61.1% - ✗
Margin 46.7% 53.3% +0.7 ✗ (3.7 off)
Pythagorean 63.9% 36.1% - ✓
Efficiency 85.1% 14.9% - ✓
Adjusted Efficiency 90.9% 9.1% - ✓
Log Adjusted 90.9% 9.1% - ✓

Actual: Virginia Cavaliers -3 (51-54). Predictions use season-end ratings.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Kendall Marshall * 37 0-6 0-2 1-2 3 6 1 0 2 1 3 -
John Henson * 36 4-10 0-0 7-8 11 1 0 2 2 15 17 -
Harrison Barnes * 36 3-15 0-5 1-3 9 0 0 0 2 7 -1 -
Reggie Bullock * 32 1-3 1-3 0-0 6 0 1 0 3 3 4 -
Tyler Zeller * 31 7-11 0-0 6-6 6 1 0 1 2 20 15 -
J. McAdoo 12 0-1 0-0 3-4 4 0 0 0 0 3 6 -
P.J. Hairston 11 2-4 1-3 0-0 5 0 0 1 0 5 7 -
Justin Watts 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
Stilman White 2 0-1 0-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -

Virginia Cavaliers

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
S. Zeglinski * 36 4-12 3-10 0-0 3 1 0 1 1 11 3 -
J. Evans * 35 6-13 0-1 1-3 5 3 2 1 0 13 11 -
J. Harris * 28 5-10 2-5 0-1 5 3 0 3 0 12 13 -
M. Scott * 22 3-13 0-2 0-0 7 0 0 2 1 6 1 -
A. Mitchell * 17 0-2 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 1 0 -2 -
M. Brogdon 25 1-4 0-2 2-2 2 0 0 0 1 4 1 -
P. Jesperson 19 1-5 1-3 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 3 -2 -
D. Atkins 18 1-1 0-0 0-0 6 0 1 0 0 2 8 -

* = starter