Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.7% | 71.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.9% | 61.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 46.7% | 53.3% | +0.7 | ✗ (3.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 63.9% | 36.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 85.1% | 14.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 90.9% | 9.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 90.9% | 9.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers -3 (51-54). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marshall * | 37 | 0-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | - |
| J. Henson * | 36 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 17 | - |
| H. Barnes * | 36 | 3-15 | 0-5 | 1-3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -1 | - |
| R. Bullock Jr. * | 32 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | - |
| T. Zeller * | 31 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 15 | - |
| J. McAdoo | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | - |
| P.J. Hairston | 11 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| J. Watts | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| S. White | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Zeglinski * | 36 | 4-12 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | - |
| J. Evans * | 35 | 6-13 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 11 | - |
| J. Harris * | 28 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 13 | - |
| M. Scott * | 22 | 3-13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | - |
| A. Mitchell * | 17 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| M. Brogdon | 25 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | - |
| P. Jesperson | 19 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | - |
| D. Atkins | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - |
* = starter