Model Predictions
| Model | Boston Celtics | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 13.8% | 86.2% | +8.5 | ✓ (4.5 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 22.4% | 77.6% | +6.8 | ✓ (2.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 33.5% | 66.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 33.5% | 66.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 34.9% | 65.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +4 (115-111). Ratings: 2011-12 season-end ratings.
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo * | 53 | 16-24 | 2-2 | 10-12 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 44 | 38 | - |
| Kevin Garnett * | 45 | 6-18 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 7 | - |
| Paul Pierce * | 43 | 8-19 | 0-5 | 5-6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 9 | - |
| Ray Allen * | 43 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Brandon Bass * | 29 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 | - |
| Mickael Pietrus | 28 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Keyon Dooling | 14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Greg Stiemsma | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Ryan Hollins | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Marquis Daniels | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Sasha Pavlovic | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| E'Twaun Moore | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 47 | 7-20 | 2-6 | 18-24 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 32 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 46 | 3-9 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 45 | 8-16 | 3-6 | 3-7 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 15 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 43 | 8-15 | 0-0 | 7-11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 19 | - |
| Ronny Turiaf * | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Udonis Haslem | 29 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 18 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 18 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Mike Miller | 14 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | - |
| James Jones | 12 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Norris Cole | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter