Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | NC State Wolfpack | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.7% | 52.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 62.6% | 37.4% | -2.8 | ✓ (9.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 57.2% | 42.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 95.8% | 4.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 87.0% | 13.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 87.0% | 13.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: NC State Wolfpack -12 (74-86). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marshall * | 38 | 7-8 | 4-5 | 4-4 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 30 | - |
| H. Barnes * | 36 | 7-14 | 2-5 | 4-5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 10 | - |
| J. Henson * | 33 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 | - |
| R. Bullock Jr. * | 32 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 | - |
| T. Zeller * | 31 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 8-8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 16 | - |
| J. McAdoo | 16 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| P.J. Hairston | 6 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | - |
| J. Watts | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| S. White | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Brown * | 36 | 6-21 | 1-6 | 5-8 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 6 | - |
| S. Wood * | 35 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - |
| C.J. Leslie * | 29 | 9-17 | 0-0 | 6-9 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 20 | - |
| C.J. Williams * | 28 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| R. Howell * | 27 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 14 | - |
| A. Johnson | 23 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| D. Painter | 20 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | - |
| T. de Thaey | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| T. Harris | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter