Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 55.4% | 44.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 27.1% | 72.9% | +5.4 | ✓ (12.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 30.1% | 69.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 8.9% | 91.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 3.1% | 96.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 3.1% | 96.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +18 (70-52). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Evans * | 37 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 3 | - |
| S. Zeglinski * | 35 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | - |
| J. Harris * | 35 | 2-9 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | - |
| M. Scott * | 27 | 9-17 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 6 | - |
| A. Mitchell * | 26 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | - |
| M. Brogdon | 24 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | - |
| D. Atkins | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
| P. Jesperson | 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Bullock Jr. * | 34 | 2-11 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -1 | - |
| K. Marshall * | 32 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | - |
| T. Zeller * | 30 | 9-16 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 23 | - |
| H. Barnes * | 30 | 4-15 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 11 | - |
| J. Henson * | 30 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | - |
| J. McAdoo | 18 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | - |
| J. Watts | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| S. White | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter