Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 69.8% | 30.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 58.1% | 41.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 47.4% | 52.6% | +0.6 | ✗ (1.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 22.7% | 77.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 15.5% | 84.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 15.3% | 84.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels -1 (84-85). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hairston | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Austin Rivers * | 39 | 9-16 | 6-10 | 5-8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 18 | - |
| M. Plumlee * | 36 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 18 | - |
| Tyler Thornton * | 30 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | - |
| Seth Curry * | 26 | 5-10 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 8 | - |
| M. Plumlee * | 17 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Ryan Kelly | 27 | 5-12 | 1-7 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 6 | - |
| Andre Dawkins | 16 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Quinn Cook | 9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Hubert | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Kendall Marshall * | 38 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 11 | - |
| John Henson * | 35 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 20 | - |
| Harrison Barnes * | 35 | 8-16 | 1-3 | 8-12 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 13 | - |
| Reggie Bullock * | 34 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Tyler Zeller * | 33 | 8-15 | 0-0 | 7-11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 19 | - |
| J. McAdoo | 12 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| P.J. Hairston | 10 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Stilman White | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Justin Watts | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter