Model Predictions
| Model | Michigan State Spartans | Illinois Fighting Illini | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 59.7% | 40.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 55.1% | 44.9% | -1.1 | ✗ (2.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 70.7% | 29.3% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 92.9% | 7.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 92.7% | 7.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 92.9% | 7.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Illinois Fighting Illini +1 (42-41). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Appling * | 34 | 1-11 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | - |
| Branden Dawson * | 28 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 14 | - |
| Brandon Wood * | 25 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Draymond Green * | 16 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Adreian Payne * | 16 | 3-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Austin Thornton | 28 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Derrick Nix | 24 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Travis Trice | 22 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -2 | - |
| Brandan Kearney | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Alex Gauna | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Illinois Fighting Illini
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Paul * | 40 | 6-17 | 1-6 | 5-9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 15 | - |
| D.J. Richardson * | 39 | 4-12 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | - |
| M. Leonard * | 29 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | - |
| T. Abrams * | 22 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| J. Bertrand * | 19 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| S. Maniscalco | 18 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Henry | 17 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| N. Egwu | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| I. Djimde | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter