Model Predictions
| Model | Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | Weber State Wildcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 3.8% | 96.2% | +21.2 | ✓ (7.2 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.0% | 95.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 2.5% | 97.5% | +20.2 | ✓ (6.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 9.0% | 91.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 14.7% | 85.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Weber State Wildcats +14 (81-67). Ratings: 2011-12 season-end ratings.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stallon Saldivar * | 40 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Durrell Norman * | 32 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Michael Dunn * | 28 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 8 | - |
| Colin Gruber * | 22 | 2-6 | 0-4 | 3-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Ephraim Ekanem * | 22 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Gabe Rogers | 30 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Gaellen Bewernick | 20 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Ben Olayinka | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Weber State Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard * | 33 | 7-14 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 17 | - |
| Kyle Tresnak * | 30 | 10-14 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 13 | - |
| Scott Bamforth * | 30 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Jordan Richardson * | 30 | 5-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Darin Mahoney * | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Frank Otis | 22 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Kyle Bullinger | 15 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
| Gelaun Wheelwright | 12 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Byron Fulton | 10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter