Model Predictions
| Model | San Diego State Aztecs | New Mexico Lobos | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 55.5% | 44.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 50.5% | 49.5% | -0.1 | ✓ (4.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 66.7% | 33.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 29.4% | 70.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 28.7% | 71.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: New Mexico Lobos -5 (70-75). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Tapley * | 36 | 3-11 | 1-6 | 5-6 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 14 | - |
| X. Thames * | 34 | 7-11 | 3-5 | 5-5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 15 | - |
| J. Rahon * | 32 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - |
| J. Franklin * | 30 | 5-13 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 6 | - |
| T. Shelton * | 26 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | - |
| D. Stephens | 14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| L. Franklin | 13 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 11 | - |
| G. Green | 9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| A. Williams | 6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
New Mexico Lobos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Williams * | 35 | 6-13 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 9 | - |
| Drew Gordon * | 34 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 16 | - |
| Jamal Fenton * | 29 | 4-14 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | - |
| A.J. Hardeman * | 23 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Tony Snell * | 21 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Phillip McDonald | 23 | 7-14 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 9 | - |
| Cameron Bairstow | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - |
| Hugh Greenwood | 10 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Demetrius Walker | 8 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | - |
| Chad Adams | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter